Weekly Round-Up #3

Weekly Roundup – October 18th, 2021

Urgent, incisive, and actionable insights concerning NorCal CRE. Curated weekly by Sparacino Realty.

The middle of October brings numbers and news both encouraging and expected. The NY Times reframes the gloomy September jobs report, multifamily metrics break decades-old records in Q3, and a Medium article deftly disproves the TikTok-spurred frenzy over whether or not Zillow is buying all the homes on your block.

The New Job Numbers Are Pretty Good, Actually 

The September jobs report incited echoing ”oofs” among experts when it revealed that employers added a mere 194,000 jobs last month –– a far cry from the 500,000 analysts predicted. However, the numbers are more promising than many initially thought. When you peel apart the details, they reflect a steady and certain expansion that is faster-acting than other recent recoveries. (RealClear Markets)

Loan Performance Insights 

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report offers an interactive view of their mortgage performance analysis. To monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates that indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. Give it a glance here!

Mortgage Rates Highest in 6 Months 

Mortgage News Daily reports that the most prevalent 30-year fixed rate is now at 3.17% for top-tier scenarios. However, with the ten-year yield over 1.6%,based on a historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 3.4% –– so we could expect mortgage rates to move a little higher. Bill McBride breaks it down into graphics and weighs in on refinance activity here.

Multifamily Metrics Show Strength in Q3

Heck yeah. Apartment vacancy is down to pre-COVID levels, according to an analysis from Moody’s Analytics REIS. These represent the highest quarterly growth figures on record since 1999. Asking and effective rents increased 7.5% and 7.9%, respectively, tripling the previous record set in the third quarter of 2000. (Multifamily Executive)

Zillow Isn’t Buying All Of The Homes on Your Block 

A TikTok triggered panic, excitement, and rage in equal measure last month when a real estate broker discussed what he claimed to be housing market manipulation from platforms like Zillow and Redfin. In the 60-second soundbite, he criticized iBuying and set the first flare in a reactionary social media dumpster fire. In this in-depth analysis, Coby Lefkowitz uses data to disprove the TikTok-ers stance and discuss America’s housing crisis at large.

House Prices to National Average Wage Index

New data for 2020 wages was released yesterday. In his CalculatedRisk newsletter, Bill McBride creates a graph illustrating the ratio of house prices to incomes. The chart shows the ratio of house price indexes divided by the National Average Wage Index (the Wage index is first divided by 1000) and comes to the conclusion that demographics are favorable for home buying.

Past Insights

Weekly Roundup – October 25th, 2021

This past week brought good news on the economy’s health, but bad news on the inflationary front; initial jobless claims down, existing home sales up…but inflation may cause the Fed to increase the fed funds rates, and mortgage rates are..

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Weekly Roundup – October 11th, 2021

Here we go again. This week’s CRE news roundup is archetypically Californian: Tesla announces that they will relocate their headquarters to Austin, a new split-roll tax ballot initiative threatens to impact multifamily properties adversely, and stringent eviction restrictions persist despite..

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