Weekly Round-up #8

Weekly Roundup – November 19th, 2021

Urgent, incisive, and actionable insights concerning NorCal CRE. Curated weekly by Sparacino Realty.

Turns out this period of inflation wasn’t just a phase. The Wall Street Journal tells us where inflation is highest, and Paul Weisman attempts to explain why it’s so high and when it will all end. Is 1970’s stagflation back? It’s too early to tell, but we do have the most housing units under construction since 1974. Apartment List comes out with their Q3 Renter Migration Report, and CAR drops their October home and sales price report.

Where Inflation Is Highest in U.S.

The U.S. inflation rate recently spiked to a 13-year high, igniting “oofs” and debates regarding whether the country is entering a 1970’s-level stagflation hellscape. In October, inflation rose at its fastest pace in three decades. Though this is an equal-inclusion yikes, prices are increasing more in some parts of the country than others. Last month, consumer prices were up 7.3% in the Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota region. (The Wall Street Journal).

EXPLAINER: Why U.S. inflation is so high, and when it may ease

A quick follow-up to the alarming sound-byte above: Paul Weisman takes a stab at explaining how we got here and our timeline for emerging. For months, economists reassured us that inflation wasn’t here to squat through the summer and fall. They dubbed it transitionary, a minor growing pain. They were wrong. The good news? Economists are still calling for growth in the fourth quarter. I guess we won’t be contending with tanking growth, just higher inflation. Great. (A.P. News)

Loan Performance Insights

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report offers an interactive view of their mortgage performance analysis. To monitor mortgage performance, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency and transition rates that indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The main takeaway from this report? Employment growth is slower than anticipated, but mortgage delinquencies are declining. Give it a glance here.

 Apartment List Renter Migration Report: 2021 Q3

Apartment List’s quarterly Renter Migration Report analyzes data on millions of searches to shed new light on migration patterns of renters in America. The takeaways from their Q3 report? Dramatic rent increases have swept across all corners of the country, renters are embarking on more long-distance moves with the freedom of remote work, and tech centers like Raleigh, San Jose, and Austin emerge as “revolving door” metros. Read the full report here.

Most Housing Units Under Construction Since 1974

If you’re not subscribed to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter, consider subscribing (all content is available for free). November 17th’s newsletter featured quite the revelation: we currently have 1.451 million units under construction –- the most since 1974. The reason this number is the highest it’s been in nearly a half-century is probably due to construction delays. Since most of these are already sold, it is unlikely that what we’re seeing is “overbuilding.” Bill McBride is also confident that this will not impact prices.

October home sales and price report

California is a crucial market and tends to show trends early. This October was no exception. Active listings in California were down 10.4% in October, while active listings also showed a decrease of 18.3%. Overall, California home sales remain solid as prices level off and low rates continue to bolster the housing market. The statewide median home price was $798,440, down 1.3 percent from September and up 12.3 percent from October 2020. See the full report here.

Past Insights

Taking a break from Commercial Real Estate Brokerage

Hi All, I dislike it when people don’t keep up on blogs.  I am an offender in my own eyes and I apologize to you, the reader if you feel the same way.  The truth is that I’ve decided to..

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US Housing Affordability Worsens to New Record Low on High Rates

Interesting article from Bloomberg about housing affordability in the US. See the link here.

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